On January 1st, Beijing time, the CBA New Year's Day battle will feature five matchups, among which one of the most anticipated by fans is the match between Guangdong and Tianjin. Although Tianjin currently ranks low at 16th in the league and has recently suffered three consecutive losses, since the second stage, Tianjin's record has been quite poor, losing 12 games and only winning 3, including a surprising victory over Beijing BAW. However, Tianjin has a characteristic: whenever they play against Guangdong, they become very motivated.
Last season, Guangdong and Tianjin played four regular-season games, with Tianjin achieving a 3-1 record. This season, the two teams met again in the club cup, and Tianjin still managed to defeat Guangdong. It can be said that if there are two teams in the league that are not afraid of Guangdong, Liaoning is one, and Tianjin is the other.
The reason why Tianjin has been able to control Guangdong over the past year can be attributed to two factors. Firstly, it relies on a fierce player in the team - David James. Standing at 6 feet 1 inch tall and with a remarkable appearance, he can play as a three, four, or five. He can break through and score inside, and shoot three-pointers outside. He is a more troublesome opponent for Guangdong than Liaoning's Fu Hao and Zhang Zhenlin. This season, David James averages 25 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game, which doesn't seem too strong, but in the last five games against Guangdong, he averages 41.8 points, 15.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, making him a nemesis for Guangdong's aging frontcourt.
Secondly, due to limited defensive resources and several aging players in the frontcourt, Guangdong's defense is vulnerable to being shot down by three-point shooting teams. Guangdong's consistent defensive strategy is to use double-teaming and big delays, accepting defeat when shot down. Taking last night's Liaoning-Guangdong game as an example, Guangdong used a lot of zone defense and double-teaming to contain Wells Furgus, leaving open shooting opportunities for Li Huyi and Fu Hao. Liaoning didn't score many points from hard post-ups, but punished Guangdong with mid-to-long-range shots.
Tianjin's recent victories over Guangdong also relied on outside shooting. In the last five games against Guangdong, Tianjin averaged nearly 16 three-pointers (four more than their season average of 11.8). Tianjin is a peculiar team; their local centers and forwards are either short or thin, and the team has long lacked a proper center, relying on James to fill in. Recently, Tianjin's frontline has improved slightly with the return of the 225cm giant center Gao Shi'ao. This player, aside from having better stamina than Xu Xin, has quite rough skills under the basket, excelling in rebounding and blocking shots. If Xu Xin were to face him, he wouldn't gain much advantage.
For Guangdong, this game cannot be lost. After all, the team's injury situation has improved significantly since the start of the season, and the league schedule has reached the second half of the second stage. The competition for the top six in the championship group is fierce, and the rankings from 7th to 12th change with each round. Guangdong currently has only 13 wins and 11 losses, accumulating 37 points and ranking 9th in the league, leading Beikong and Nanjing by only 1 point, and Shanghai by 2 points with two fewer games played. They could be pushed out of the top 10 at any time. With Tianjin's recent poor record, this presents an opportunity for Guangdong to turn things around.
Three key elements for Guangdong's victory: 1. Someone must step up in the paint to limit David James; currently, only Morland and Bazley in Guangdong can do this, especially Bazley. Little Bei's height and wingspan match up well with James. Guangdong no longer relies on him against strong teams, but against weaker opponents, Bazley should be able to perform. Whether Guangdong can "pull off a surprise" and defeat Tianjin depends entirely on him.
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The outside shooters must not hold the team back; Tianjin's recent poor record makes them eager to compete against Guangdong again. They will certainly try their best to win this game, and there will be plenty of three-point attempts. If Guangdong's defense fails to keep up, they could easily fall into a passive position. Therefore, the offense must not hinder the team, especially outside shooters like Du Runwang, Zhang Wenyi, and Zhang Haojia.
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The use of Xu Jie; as we all know, Xu Jie is the crux of Guangdong's current situation in every game. Holding onto Xu Jie is like holding onto the throat of Guangdong's fate. With the current shortage of guards, Lei Si has already given up, so Du Feng needs to be even more cautious in using Xu Jie. Guangdong needs more young players to step up and score, preserving Xu Jie's energy as much as possible in the first half.