In the 24th round of the CBA league, Shandong Expressway will face Sichuan Fengguu Liquor at home. This is the first encounter between the two teams this season. Looking at their historical head-to-head record, Shandong Expressway has played against Sichuan Fengguu Liquor 24 times, with 15 wins and 9 losses. Although Sichuan has a championship experience, Shandong still holds an advantage in overall strength. Sichuan's success back then was largely due to their foreign player advantage.
Last season, both teams were considered bottom-dwellers and failed to qualify for the playoffs. However, this season has seen some changes for both teams. Under the leadership of coach Qiubiao, Shandong Expressway currently has a record of 16 wins and 7 losses, ranking sixth in the league. On the contrary, Sichuan has a record of 7 wins and 16 losses, ranking sixteenth, with a clear gap between the two sides.
Shandong Expressway cannot underestimate this opponent, as they have previously suffered losses due to underestimating their opponents, such as losing to Jilin away from home mainly because of underestimation.
Looking at the basic data from this season, Shandong Expressway can be considered a relatively balanced team in terms of offense and defense, averaging 104.7 points scored and 101 points conceded, which are both mid-to-upper level figures that align well with their current ranking. Sichuan averages 101 points scored and 108.6 points conceded, which are at the bottom of the rankings and generally consistent with their current position.
However, Sichuan is not a completely powerless super weak team; they have victories over Zhejiang Chouzhou Financial Leasing and Guangdong Dongguang. Their potential for upsets is quite high. The main reason for Sichuan's upset potential is the presence of a super-scoring small foreign player, Samna.
So far, Samna has played 19 games for Sichuan, averaging 35.4 points per game, making him the top scorer in the CBA. Another small foreign player, Hunter, also has explosive scoring ability, averaging 18.8 points per game.
Despite having a super-scorer, Sichuan is still the leader of the weak teams, mainly because it is difficult for the team to establish a solid defensive line, with an average of 108.6 points conceded per season. They are only better than Fujian and Ningbo teams, and on par with Tianjin, ranking fourth from the bottom.
Therefore, if Shandong Expressway wants to avoid being "drunk," they must ensure that their offense does not easily falter, aiming for at least 108 points. They need to strike at the opponent strategically, especially ensuring stable performance from Chris in the interior. Sichuan's interior height is not low, but they are mostly stationary-type players, with Su Ruyu and Maric lacking mobility. Chris, with his strong mobility, has a certain advantage against them.
For Shandong Expressway, if they want to win the game smoothly, how to limit Samna will be key. As a full-sized shooting guard, there is actually no one on Shandong Expressway who can match up with him, especially in terms of physical talent. Defending him will definitely be challenging for the Expressway's guards, although Yu Dehao and Xie Zhijie can match up in size. However, defending Samna will require more coordination from the full-sized forwards, and Shandong Expressway is a team with the most obvious weakness in the forward position, adding difficulty to limiting Samna.
Therefore, the key to this game for Shandong Expressway will be to see how coach Qiubiao's strategy is to defend against Samna. Recently, Samna has been in hot form, scoring 37 points against Jiangsu and 47 points against Guangzhou in rounds 22 and 23, leading the team to two consecutive victories. Can the perimeter defense group of Shandong Expressway under Qiubiao hold him down?
What do you think are the chances of Shandong Expressway winning this game? Welcome to leave your comments and discuss!