The NBA regular season is more than halfway through, and the situation in the West has become increasingly complex. While teams like the Thunder, Rockets, Grizzlies, and Nuggets have relatively stable positions, the gap between them and the fifth-placed Clippers is not significant. Teams such as the Timberwolves, Kings, Warriors, and Suns are all within a maximum of 0.5 wins of each other, and despite the Warriors' and Suns' recent struggles, they could easily return to the top six in the West. On the contrary, the Spurs are slipping, and the Mavericks, without Doncic, lack competitiveness. If Doncic returns during the All-Star period at the earliest, the Mavericks will have to start from 12th place in the West. In the Eastern Conference, the competition this season is also fierce, with a maximum difference of three wins between fourth-placed Bucks and ninth-placed Heat.
Although there are many "point-giving" teams in the East, it must be said that young teams like the Pistons, Hawks, Magic, and Pacers have high ceilings. Even the top two teams in the East, the Cavaliers and Celtics, often lose to these mid-tier teams, making it difficult for them to secure victories. When predicting this season, American media generally believes that the Thunder in the West and the Cavaliers and Celtics in the East are the biggest favorites to win the championship. Both the Cavaliers and Thunder have a winning rate of over 80%, with solid rosters, and the regular season does not pose much pressure on them. As for the defending champions, the Celtics, do they still have a chance to successfully defend their title this season? With an opening record of 29 wins and 13 losses, a winning rate close to 70%, and third in the league, this is all an illusion. From being the defending champions to ranking last in the league, the fastest declining team of the season has emerged.
Looking at several sets of data, American media statistics show that in the past 16 games, the Celtics have a record of only 8 wins and 8 losses, including a surprising loss to the Bulls, an unexpected loss to the Magic missing their three core players, a Christmas Day defeat to the 76ers, and a complete loss to the Pacers. Since entering 2025, they have suffered heavy defeats to the Thunder, Kings, and Raptors, and lost in overtime to the Hawks. In the past seven games, the Celtics have a record of 3 wins and 4 losses, with an offensive efficiency of 93.5 in the fourth quarter, ranking last in the league! Their defensive efficiency is 115.7, ranking 20th in the league! Their net efficiency value of -22.2 ranks 29th in the league. The reason the Celtics can still maintain top-five offensive and defensive efficiency in the league is that their performance in the first 30 games was indeed impressive. However, as the season progresses, their shortcomings are becoming increasingly apparent and cannot be hidden!
Starting with one statistic, the Celtics average 49.1 three-point attempts per game and make 17.8 three-pointers, both league-leading numbers. However, their three-point shooting percentage is a meager 36.2%, ranking only 16th in the league! They are so obsessed with three-point shooting that they seem to be in a trance, with Tatum and Jaylen Brown leading the way, along with Derrick White and Holiday. Shooting inside the three-point line almost feels like a crime, but among the Celtics' starting five giants, only Porzingis (injured) has a three-point shooting percentage of 38%, while the others are below 36%! Taking the loss to the Hawks as an example, even though they led by three points with possession of the ball in the final 20 seconds of regulation time, they were dragged into overtime and lost the game. As one of the team's core players, Jaylen Brown was blocked eight times in a single game!
As last season's champions, the Celtics retained their entire championship-winning roster, with Jaylen Brown signing a five-year, 289millioncontract,Tatumsigningafive−year,315 million contract, and Holiday and Porzingis earning an average salary of 30millioneach.White′snewcontractalsohasanaveragesalaryexceeding31 million. How long can they maintain this lineup? After winning the championship last season, the Celtics' major shareholder, the Irving family, wanted to sell the team, but with a high asking price, no one was interested, and lowering the price would not be approved by the league. However, if they keep this lineup until the 2025-26 season, their expenses could reach nearly $450 million, which would definitely result in a loss! They are unwilling to continue incurring such losses. In other words, the Celtics' management will undoubtedly try to trade away some players this summer, such as either Holiday or White, or the injury-prone Porzingis.
Here comes the question: The Celtics' success last season was indeed built on having the most balanced starting five giants. However, with Holiday and Horford getting older and their form declining, and Porzingis reaching the stage where he needs to renew his contract, their remaining championship window is just this season. But the norm for the Celtics this season is: all three-point shots. Tatum is slightly better, able to organize and connect plays, and possesses a certain threat in attacking the basket. Can the others relying on three-point shots make it to the end of the playoffs? What if they encounter opponents in the playoffs who are very good at physical play and wrestling, and have a full-sized frontcourt, like the Hawks, Magic, and Pacers?
During the 17-18 season, the Rockets also relied on three-point shooting, but the whole team could defend, and Harden could solve battles with individual play. If they hadn't faced the "Universe Warriors," and if Paul hadn't been injured in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, the championship that season should have belonged to the Rockets. However, here with the Celtics, they have regressed this season to only throwing three-pointers. If they perform this way in the regular season, can they make a 180-degree change in the playoffs? The outcome is predictable! The team that has regressed the fastest this season will definitely dismantle its roster this summer, and it would not be surprising if they were eliminated in the first round.
