The NBA regular season schedule for this season is more than halfway through, with fierce competition in both the Eastern and Western Conferences. There is a common point between the two divisions: the top teams, the Thunder and Cavaliers, have a significant lead over the rest of their respective conferences (more than six wins). The second-place teams, the Rockets and Celtics, also have relatively stable positions. However, from fourth place onwards, there is a chaotic battle among multiple teams. In the West, there are nine teams within a 4.5-game difference between the fourth-place Nuggets and the twelfth-place Spurs. In the East, there are six teams within a 2-game difference between the fourth-place Bucks and the ninth-place Pistons. One thing is certain: as legendary superstars like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry age, many mid-career and rising stars are gradually taking on greater roles.
However, to be honest, before winning a championship, many teams are considered pseudo-strong, lacking the experience of the brutal playoff battles. This season's biggest contender in the West is undoubtedly the Thunder. Last season, they were defeated by the Mavericks' twin towers and the Doncic-East combo, but this season, with the addition of Hartenstein and Caruso, the team's lower limit has been significantly improved, and they rarely face significant pressure in the regular season. On the Eastern side, there are three championship contenders: the Cavaliers, Celtics, and Knicks. Especially the Cavaliers, who are widely favored by American media to succeed in the post-LeBron era. With the Celtics' aging roster and severe salary pressure, and the Knicks' seven-man rotation with high potential but low floor, the Cavaliers appear more balanced and are expected to reach another peak. But what are the odds?
The Cavaliers won 34 games in their first 40 games of the season, with an 85% win rate and the best record in the league. To be precise, they had already achieved 34 wins in their first 39 games. According to NBA historical data, teams that have reached this threshold have previously made it to the finals in the NBA, with eight out of nine teams reaching the finals and six winning championships. The worst was the 76ers in the 80-81 season, who still made it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Does this mean the Cavaliers can see the championship trophy? Let's start with the Cavaliers' recent two losses. Against last season's Eastern Conference finalist Pacers, the Cavaliers, who once led by 18 points, were reversed by 33 points and suffered a 15-point defeat! In the entire second half, the Cavaliers only scored 40 points, unable to compete with their opponents in rebounds or fast breaks, and their bench lost nearly 20 points!
In a strong matchup against the Western Conference-leading Thunder, the Cavaliers had previously beaten them by 7 points, but at the Thunder's home court, the Cavaliers were powerless, trailing by as much as 42 points at one point. Fortunately, the Thunder gave the Cavaliers some face in the fourth quarter, allowing them to recover somewhat, but they still suffered a 20-point defeat. The Cavaliers have three main problems: firstly, Mitchell's ceiling is not high enough. In the two games against the Thunder, Mitchell averaged 9.5 points and 3 assists, with shooting percentages as low as 19% + 27%. When he was with the Jazz, Mitchell was defended to the point of isolation by Gordon and Paul. He does have the ability to score, but lacks the level to elevate the team's height. Secondly, the Cavaliers' lineup structure has obvious shortcomings, lacking standard wings!
The entire Cavaliers team has Mobley at 2.11 meters and Allen at 2.08 meters, and the twin tower combination can indeed achieve a dimensional reduction strike against most teams in the regular season, coupled with Garland's playmaking and Mitchell's scoring, which is enough to deal with the regular season. However, apart from the twin towers, the other main rotation players, such as Mitchell at 1.85 meters, Garland at 1.85 meters, Wade (the player who plays the most at the No. 3 position at 2.06 meters, actually a power forward), and others like Strus, Jerome, Okoro, LeVert, Niang are all around 1.96-1.98 meters, which is simply not enough! Previously, the Cavaliers were double-killed by the Hawks, losing 27 points in two games, and the reason is here: they cannot match the height and confrontation of the Hawks, their flanks are penetrated, and the twin towers appear very cumbersome.
As for Mitchell and Garland, they are equivalent to giving away points on the defensive end in the playoffs. They were eliminated 4-1 by the Celtics in last season's playoffs and were eliminated in the first round by the Knicks in 2023, and the reason is here: even if the Cavaliers' offense matches up, their defense will definitely not hold up. And the third reason is the key to why the Cavaliers become paper tigers. The Cavaliers' offensive statistics this season are basically the best in the league (shooting percentage of 50.1% + three-point shooting percentage of 39.7% + offensive efficiency of 121.3), but their defense barely enters the top ten in the league. Compared to the past two seasons, the Cavaliers have made great progress on the offensive end, but have regressed significantly on the defensive end. To put it bluntly, the four core players have their minds set on the offensive end.
From the start of the season until now, the NBA has released 13 power rankings, and the Cavaliers have occupied the top spot in seven of them. In terms of championship probability, they are second only to the Thunder. However, the Cavaliers, not to mention being compared with teams like the Thunder and Celtics, may really struggle in the playoffs if they encounter teams like the Hawks and Heat in the first round. They are somewhat similar to the Raptors from 7 to 8 years ago, strong in the regular season, but in the playoffs, they may see how cruel the world can be.
