The NBA regular season is nearing its halfway point, with the Western Conference showing a trend of polarization. The Trail Blazers, Jazz, and Pelicans have already decided to rebuild and are not interested in competing. The Thunder seems firmly entrenched at the top of the West with an almost 85% win rate, making it difficult for other competitors to catch up. Among the larger group, the Rockets were actually the first to break through, with a record of 26 wins and 12 losses, approaching a 70% win rate. If they continue at this pace, the Rockets are expected to secure one of the top three spots in the West. However, from the Grizzlies to the Warriors, these ten teams are bunched together, each with their own challenges. The Nuggets rely on Jokic and Westbrook; Leonard has returned but hasn't found his form, performing worse than the previous Clippers lineup; the Lakers lack defense and offense, with LeBron and Davis both feeling disheartened.
The Suns and Kings are attracting attention with their rebounding momentum. After acquiring Beal, the Suns have come alive, while the Kings have quietly won seven straight games, keeping pace with the main group. It's like the current stock market, where there can't be continuous declines; there will always be opportunities for recovery, attracting more retail investors. However, a rebound doesn't necessarily mean a reversal, as a big drop could occur at any moment, burying more people. Among this group, the most pitiable team is undoubtedly the Warriors. With a record of 19 wins and 20 losses so far, they have dropped to 12th in the West, with a lower chance of making the playoffs than the Spurs and Kings! With a record of 7 wins and 17 losses, falling from first in the West, they are the first team in NBA history to do so! They should consider breaking up and rebuilding early.
Let's start with some statistics. According to StatMuse, the Warriors started with a record of 12 wins and 3 losses, once topping the West, but then went on to win only 7 out of their next 24 games, dropping below a 50% win rate! The Warriors have become the first team in NBA history to achieve this embarrassing record, while historically, teams that started with a 12-3 record averaged around 58 wins in the regular season! For the Warriors to reach that historical average, they would need to win 39 out of their remaining 43 games, which is clearly impossible, even for the peak Warriors! What are the problems with the Warriors? There are essentially two issues: core decline and no one to take over the ball handling responsibilities. As for Kerr's excessive rotation framework and tactical issues, they are not the problem; they are meant to help Curry.
Starting with Curry, he is averaging 22.7 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists this season, with shooting percentages of 44% and 41%. Curry, who will turn 37 in March, can be understood to experience a decline in form, as James, Durant, Harden, and Westbrook have all experienced declines. However, Curry's situation is different from theirs because he is the absolute core of the Warriors' system, someone who is 100% irreplaceable. In just the past month, the Warriors have a record of 5 wins and 11 losses. According to ESPN's statistics, in five of those losses, the Warriors had a win rate of over 70% during the game. Here are some simple examples: a one-point loss to the Rockets, where the Warriors faltered in the final moments; a loss to the Pacers where Curry struggled, but the team held on until the end, only to be defeated by Turner's three-pointer.
Including losses to the bottom-dwelling Raptors in the East, a two-point loss to the Lakers, and a game against the Mavericks where Curry was overly confident in the final moments; a 51-point defeat to the Grizzlies where Curry went 0-for-7 in 24 minutes. As Curry ages, opponents are not as aggressive in double-teaming him, but Curry himself is unable to make up for it. The second issue is the lack of someone to handle the ball. Since Kuminga went down with an ankle injury, the Warriors have a record of 1 win and 4 losses, including a 30-point loss to the Kings, a 16-point loss to the Heat, a narrow 3-point victory over the Pistons, a 12-point defeat to the Pacers, and an upset loss to the Raptors. Wiggins lacks the mentality and responsibility of a leader, Curry's form has declined, and they were relying on Kuminga to lead victories against the Suns, Rockets, and Timberwolves, which was based on Kerr squeezing Kuminga's playing time!
Kuminga's standard 36-minute data is an average of 23.3 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists, but can he get that much playing time? After Kuminga's injury, the Warriors have lost their last line of defense. Kerr, in order to maximize Curry's value, implements a cutting and passing system, maintaining a three-guard lineup for 60% of the time to create space. When Draymond Green is not available, Wiggins is pushed to the power forward position, and many substitutes have their playing time cut up, leaving them without rhythm. But looking at it from another angle, do opponents really fear this season's Curry? Averaging 22.7 points, ranked 25th in the league, with a holding-the-ball double-team rate around 10th in the league, and a lower rate of being double-teamed off the ball than Harden. There are only two teams in the entire league whose second-leading scorer averages less than 17 points, one is the league-worst Wizards, and the other is the Warriors.
Kerr's backward approach cannot save the declining Curry. Exploiting the growth of young players can only lead to a straight decline in the team's performance. So, with this roster, even if the Warriors make it to the play-in tournament or the playoffs, what competitiveness do they have? Can they outrun the Grizzlies or Rockets? Do they have better defense than the Clippers or Timberwolves? Or are their core players' upper limits higher than Jokic or Alexander? None of these apply, so they should consider rebuilding early! The Warriors have two options moving forward: either Curry stays to mentor the young players, with Schroder and Green among others leaving. Or they completely discard all the young players and trust Curry again, which means the Warriors might have nothing in the future.
