The war in Ukraine has reached its 1054th day. Despite it being Sunday, the Russian New Year holiday has ended, and the Russian military's offensive is noticeably stronger than the previous two days. Observing the front lines today, one can discern three major changes on the battlefield.
Firstly, the natural barrier of Lyman has become a nightmare for the Ukrainian forces. The Russian army is advancing from north to south along the valley of the Dnipro River east of Lyman, with the main thrust relying on the bridgehead fortress of Inhulets on the west bank, beginning an assault on Klyuchi village to the south.
The Dnipro River is a major river flowing north to south east of Lyman city, which was originally a natural barrier blocking the Russian army's advance from east to west. However, the Russian army is now attacking from the north along both banks of the river, putting the Ukrainian forces on the east bank in a desperate situation with supply difficulties, ultimately turning the natural barrier into a nightmare for the Ukrainians during defense. Klyuchi village is located in the northeast of Lyman city, only 15 kilometers in a straight line from the urban area, and the Russian artillery can basically cover Lyman city. The Ukrainian army has begun preparations to meet the attack of the Russian ground forces.
Secondly, the encirclement battle around Chasiv Yar has begun. The Russian army launched a fierce attack in the south of Chasiv Yar along the road line from Pokrovsk to Bakhmut. This has caused great vigilance among the Ukrainian forces. It should be noted that the Russian offensive line targeting Pokrovsk is already 40 kilometers long, and the main goal of this wave of attacks is the road line from Pokrovsk to Bakhmut, with the vanguard less than two kilometers away from this road line.
Now, if the Russian army relies on Bakhmut and advances along this road line, it can not only encircle Chasiv Yar from the south but also support the Russian army's offensive from the direction of Pokrovsk. Since Chasiv Yar is located on high ground, it is easy to defend but difficult to attack. The Russian army has been besieging it for a long time and has broken into the urban area. Now that the Russians have started an encirclement from the outside, they are likely hoping to resolve this tough nut in the near future.
Thirdly, the encirclement around Novoselka is shrinking. In the past two weeks, the Russian army has been gradually contracting the encirclement around Novoselka town, leaving the Ukrainian forces within the encirclement feeling the difficulty of resupply, with a noticeable decrease in the density of artillery shells used to counterattack the Russians.
The Russian army launched an attack in the north of Novoselka town, reaching the bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in the west of Novoselka town. This effectively cut off the route for the Ukrainian forces within the encirclement to retreat northwest along the river valley. As a result, the opening for the Ukrainian forces in the west to retreat is left with about two kilometers. It is expected that by the end of this week, after the Russian army's battle to clear the remaining Ukrainian forces in Kurakhove is basically over, the Russian army will completely seal off this pocket formation and launch an attack on it.
In summary, taking advantage of the opportunity when Trump is about to take office and the Ukrainian army's morale is unstable, the Russian army, which has superior manpower and firepower, is boldly flanking and encircling on the main battlefield of Donbas, trying to stretch the front line and drag down the exhausted Ukrainian army.