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Recently, American media outlet "FW" released their predictions for the probability of current NBA stars being inducted into the Hall of Fame, including players who retired in 2024 and those who have not yet officially announced their retirement. Let's take a look at their respective probabilities.
Players with an induction probability below 20%: Rose 10.5%, Towns 10.8%, Horford 12.2%, Iguodala 12.6%, Walker 15.1%
Among these players, the most likely to be inducted is undoubtedly Iguodala, who was a key contributor to the Warriors' four championships and also won the FMVP trophy. Referring to Billups, who was inducted in the previous two years, such honors are already sufficient to support Iguodala's entry into the Hall of Fame. The most regrettable is Rose; if it weren't for injuries, the youngest MVP in history might have achieved as much as Curry and Harden.
Players with an induction probability between 20% and 60%: Gobert 21.6%, Wall 32.3%, DeRozan 42.4%, Griffin 54.8%
Gobert has been named Defensive Player of the Year four times and selected to the All-Defensive First Team seven times. As a defensive center, such achievements are impressive, but whether he will be inducted in the future depends on whether he can win a championship. The other three were All-Star level players in their prime, but they don't have any outstanding honors to show for it.
Players with an induction probability between 70% and 90%: Thompson 70.2%, Butler 72.9%, Love 73.4%, Green 76.8%, Leonard 77.6%, Lowry 85.7%
This category includes five players who have won championships as core members. Leonard's 77.6% probability is lower than Lowry's, which is clearly underestimated. Despite not having a regular season MVP, Leonard's achievement of 2 championships + 2 FMVPs would absolutely allow him entry into the Hall of Fame in any era.
Players with an induction probability between 90% and 99.9%: Antetokounmpo 94.9%, Lillard 96.4%, Davis 98.6%, Westbrook 99.9%, Harden 99.9%
Induction into the Hall of Fame for these players is almost certain. They were all included in the list of the top 75 players in history. As long as there are no unexpected events, their induction after retirement is just a matter of time.
Players with a 100% induction probability: James, Curry, Durant, Paul
James, Durant, and Curry are the faces of the NBA in this era, with their abilities, honors, and influence at the highest level. Even five years ago, they could still confidently enter the Hall of Fame. Although Paul does not have a championship to his name, he has accumulated countless honors and records over the past 20 years, making him a representative point guard of this era, and he will inevitably be inducted in the future.