The NBA regular season is nearing its halfway point, with fierce competition in the Western Conference. From the fifth-placed Mavericks to the twelfth-placed Spurs, there is only a difference of three wins, yet eight teams are clustered together, ensuring that some will secure direct playoff spots while others may not even qualify for the play-in tournament. On the Eastern side, the competition is also more intense than in previous seasons, with teams like the Hawks and Pistons achieving over a 50% win rate. Last season's Eastern Conference finalist, the Pacers, made a six-game winning streak to jump into the top five. The Heat, without Butler, have no room for tanking (if they don't make the playoffs this season, they will give their first-round picks in 2025 and 2027 directly to the Thunder and Hornets), leaving them with no choice but to push forward. Even the 76ers, who are on the brink of struggle, can only maintain a 40% win rate.
In fact, the top four in the East this season are basically set. The Cavaliers started with 33 wins in 38 games and even have a chance to challenge the 73-win record! As defending champions, the Celtics have struggled to integrate Porzingis into the team, but like Leonard, Porzingis is meant for the playoffs, and the core lineup is solid enough. As for whether they will disband due to massive salary pressures this summer, that remains to be seen. Including the Knicks' four giants combination, leading with a 65% win rate, and the Magic, plagued by injuries but never dropping out of the top four in the East, with high future potential. However, one team is in a very awkward position: the Bucks. At the beginning of the season, they were among the top three contenders in the East, with championship odds surpassing Western teams like the Mavericks and Nuggets. They also won the NBA Cup this season, but it's time for their leader to leave!
According to American media calculations, the Bucks have a dismal record of 1 win and 9 losses against strong teams (those with a net score per hundred rounds greater than +3.0), making them the worst-performing team among all strong teams! To be precise, the Bucks are weak when facing strong opponents, only capable of dominating weaker ones. Although they defeated the Thunder in the NBA Cup final and won the championship, statistics show that the Bucks have a combined record of 0 wins and 8 losses against the top three teams in the East this season: 0 wins and 3 losses against the Cavaliers, 0 wins and 3 losses against the Celtics, and 0 wins and 2 losses against the Knicks! In the recent two direct encounters with strong teams, the Bucks suffered a crushing 34-point defeat at the hands of the Knicks, even giving Coach Thibodeau the opportunity to field three substitutes (who played more than 15 minutes). This includes a 23-point loss to the top-seeded Cavaliers in the East, with no one except Giannis Antetokounmpo able to score.
According to the team reporter, Giannis Antetokounmpo is very dissatisfied with the team's poor performance against strong opponents. Giannis said, "We're not playing well in some key games this season; we can't beat the Celtics, the Cavaliers, or the Knicks. They are the top three teams in the East, but we can't match their competitiveness." What exactly is the problem with the Bucks? There are three aspects: First, as Giannis' partner, Lillard has shown too much inconsistency. In the highly competitive Eastern Division, Lillard does not possess the attribute of rising to the occasion against strong opponents, such as shooting 3 of 14 against the Pacers, 2 of 7 against the Nets, and 4 of 15 against the Celtics. Moreover, Lillard's defense is easily targeted, resulting in a self-inflicted damage type of player. Second, Coach Rivers has made drastic changes to the lineup, such as benching Middleton.
All opponents know that the Bucks' starting lineup has only two scoring points: the leaky Lillard and Giannis. Giannis faces immense pressure on both offense and defense. Although he leads the league with an average of 31.4 points per game this season, he must also focus on defense and play the role of a finisher, with insufficient support from his teammates. The most critical point is that the Bucks' roster structure does not match up to the top three in the East. Taking the Knicks as an example, Lopez is like a toy against Towns, Brunson exploded for 44 points against Lillard, and even the Knicks' bench, which ranks last in the league in scoring, could outscore the Bucks' starters. The Bucks' roster is too old, lacking mobility and flexibility, and both guards, Lillard and Andre Jackson, have insufficient defensive attributes.
Do the Bucks still have a chance to win the championship this season? According to renowned journalist Marc Stein, the Bucks may be the most passive team in the league because they cannot actively trade Giannis. However, if Giannis doesn't see a championship hope, he can propose to leave at any time! With this Bucks lineup, Middleton, Lopez, and Lillard will all decline in form as they age, getting worse year after year! Interestingly, the Bucks only have one first-round pick available in the next seven years, what can they do with that? Multiple American media outlets have confirmed that the Nets are not in a hurry to pursue stars because they are waiting for Giannis. The Nets have the Bucks' first-round pick this summer and will have 15 first-round picks in the next seven years, with 12 of them tradable, making them the Bucks' savior in their eyes.
Giannis should leave! Since acquiring Lillard, the Bucks have only one path left: wait for Giannis to propose leaving proactively and then rebuild by trading for assets! Lillard is unsellable, and no team would be willing to take on Middleton's overpriced contract. Giannis helped the Bucks win the championship in 2021, but since then, the team has been in a downward spiral, with each new coach performing worse than the last and failing in their pursuit of stars. It's really time for a complete overhaul and restart.
