The year 2025 has arrived, marking the beginning of a new year. The Serie A season 2024/25 has completed 18 rounds of matches, which is roughly half of the season. Currently, the top three teams in the league table are closely contested, with Atalanta and Napoli tied on 41 points, occupying first and second place based on goal difference, while Inter Milan sits in third with 40 points. However, Inter Milan has played one fewer match, giving them a significant opportunity to claim the top spot.
This extremely small point difference among the top three teams has not been seen since the 2002/03 season, 21 seasons ago. Back then, Serie A had only 34 rounds, four fewer than the current 38 rounds. After 18 rounds, the league was already past the halfway mark. The standings after 18 rounds that year were: AC Milan with 39 points at the top, Juventus and Inter Milan tied on 38 points in second and third, and Lazio with 36 points in fourth. However, by the end of the entire season, the final standings changed: Juventus won the title with 72 points, Inter Milan finished as runners-up with 65 points, AC Milan took third place with 61 points, and Lazio secured fourth place with 60 points.
Since Inter Milan won the championship in the 2020/21 season, breaking Juventus' dream of a ten consecutive Serie A titles, no team has successfully defended their title in the last four completed seasons. Serie A has entered an era of chaos. Unlike the previous two seasons where the champions were decided early, this season's Serie A has seen three different teams take turns at the top after just 18 rounds.
As the defending champions, Inter Milan started the season with only 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the first five rounds, slightly behind Napoli's record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. While Napoli achieved an impressive record of 8 wins and 1 draw from round 2 to round 10, Inter Milan managed only 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss during the same period, trailing Napoli by 4 points at that time.
Currently topping the league, Atalanta made a remarkable comeback, overtaking the two former Serie A champions to reach the top spot. Despite starting the season with only 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the first six rounds, they went on an incredible run from round 7 to round 17, winning eleven consecutive matches to claim the top position.
Observing Atalanta's rise, Inter Milan has been chasing them in Serie A since round 6. They have remained unbeaten in their last 12 league matches, achieving 10 wins and 2 draws. However, despite the strong performances of Napoli and Atalanta, Inter Milan has managed to close the gap to zero points and still has one game in hand, regaining their advantage.
While discussing the title race among the top three, it's worth noting that Lazio, currently in fourth place, is only 6 points behind the leaders and still has a chance to compete for the title. There have been instances in Serie A where the team in fourth place after 18 rounds eventually overtook to win the championship. The most recent example was in the 2021/22 season when the eventual champions, AC Milan, were 4 points behind the leaders after 18 rounds and in third place but ultimately surpassed Inter Milan by 2 points to claim the title.
Let's analyze which team is most likely to win the Serie A championship this season:
Looking at the results of the first leg encounters between the top three teams, Atalanta suffered a 0:4 away defeat to Inter Milan and a 3:0 away victory over Napoli; Napoli drew 1:1 away with Inter Milan, putting them at a disadvantage among the top three; Inter Milan holds the biggest advantage with 1 win and 1 draw.
In the matchups against the current top ten teams in Serie A: Atalanta won at home against Fiorentina, drew away with Bologna, won at home against Udinese, won away against Roma, won at home against AC Milan, and drew away with Lazio, totaling 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss; Napoli won at home against Bologna, drew away with Juventus, won away against AC Milan, won at home against Roma, lost at home to Lazio, and won away against Udinese, totaling 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses; Inter Milan lost away to AC Milan, won away against Udinese, won away against Roma, drew at home with Juventus, and won away against Lazio, with one fewer match played, totaling 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss.
Overall, Inter Milan not only holds a certain advantage in the competition among the top three but has also only lost one match in Serie A so far, to their city rivals AC Milan, giving them the highest probability of winning the title. The current league leaders, Atalanta, have a disadvantage due to their defeats to Torino and Como at the start of the season. Napoli has the lowest probability among the top three, having lost to lower-ranked Verona and also to Atalanta and Lazio within the top ten of Serie A.
With the Italian Super Cup currently underway, both Inter Milan and Atalanta need to participate, and their direct confrontation has led to the postponement of their Serie A match in the 19th round. It is possible that after the 19th round, there may be temporary changes at the top of the Serie A table, and Napoli could return to the top spot. Let's look forward to it together!